Monday, April 20, 2026

Fixed income investing

 The bond market changed in 2008. Before that, it was actually possible to never touch stocks and still retire.


I no longer believe that to be true. There are 2 things working against a fixed income investor:

1/ The way inflation is measured is constantly being changed. I doubt there are very many people for whom the CPI actually shows real inflation as they experience it.  It's easy to do your own research with expenses if you have just one checking account that you're pulling money from. When I tracked my expenses over the period of a few years, it was an eye opener. A 5-year TIPS got me around 20% at maturity, but expenses went up close to 50%. This is from 2019-2024. If the discrepancy between CPI and your actual experienced inflation is 50% (i.e. when CPI is 1%, you experience 1.5%), this has minimal impact at low values of CPI. The hotter that CPI runs, the bigger the impact. For example, if you have an investment that tracks the CPI and CPI is 4%, you are essentially losing 2% of purchasing power per year. And that's before taxes, which brings us to #2.

2/ Taxes are a killer with fixed income in a taxable account. With the NIIT, for someone in the 35% tax bracket, the total tax rate is 38.8%. With a 3 month t-bill earning 3.6% state tax free (this matters in a lot in states like CA that have a high state income tax), one would end up with only 2.2% after tax. Current CPI is 3.3%. So this is a guaranteed loss of purchasing power. The highest yield on the treasury curve is 4.88% for a 30 year bond. After tax that leaves 2.98%! Yes, even if one was crazy to risk capital for 30 years, they would be guaranteed losing to CPI right now, let alone actual spend which is actually much higher than 3.3%. TIPS in taxable account aren't going to be of much help, plus they come with the added disadvantage that you have to pay taxes on the inflation adjustments even without getting paid--the opposite of tax deferral! Products like BOXX may help, but they require taking added risk which I don't fully understand.

Corporate bonds are even worse because the yield spreads vs treasuries are low and they are subject to state tax. So even they don't keep up with inflation.

If a bond book was written before 2008, it is probably not very relevant for today's investing environment.  When bond investing worked, this book was probably the best book:
https://zvibodie.com/book/worry-free-investing/
You can now buy a pdf for $5 at the link above.
The gist of the book was that you only start investing in stocks when your basic retirement needs are covered by fixed income instruments (money market funds, CDs, stable value funds, treasuries, TIPS, I-Bonds, E-Bonds). This is almost impossible to achieve today as you'd be constantly falling behind.

It's OK to hold bonds. Just know that historical data that shows that it can keep up with inflation (or even exceed it) no longer holds.

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Something's wrong with the economy and it can't be fixed

I'm not an economist, but this is something that's been bothering me.

If a company can build a business on issuing debt and buying bitcoin and create millions in wealth for its shareholders, what is the incentive for someone to deploy capital in building and running a factory?

Because of fed policy, pension funds have been driven into stocks.  Therefore, pension funds will become insolvent if the stock market stays flat or goes down over any extended period of time.  So if the stock market is guaranteed to go up, they why deploy capital building and running a factory or any other kind of business where you have to deal with the day to day stress of running the business including labor and legal issues?

Already most of the brightest students aren't seeking careers in medicine, engineering, research, or teaching.  They prefer to become quant traders or work for private equity firms.  This means we simply don't even have the talent to advance the technology as much as other countries do.  What is the incentive for someone to spend half a million on medical school when they can get a job as a realtor after high school and make as much as a primary care doctor?  Unless your earnings are indexed to asset prices (realtor, trader, etc.), your income is probably not keeping up with inflation and your standard of living is falling.  As an engineer or accountant, you struggle to get a raise.  If, on the other hand, your income is indexed to assets which have been inflating then you have made a killing.  So as a realtor, asset manager, private equity banker, etc. life has been great. 

Couple that with a broken medical system and the cost of labor for regular jobs is unaffordable for most businesses.  The medical system cannot be fixed without collapsing the whole economy and the stock market.

I can't think of a way out of this.  As a country, I often hear we will "inflate our way out of this".  But we can't do that because our unfunded liabilities (especially the cost of medical care) is going up much faster than the rate of inflation.

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

The broken web

 This post is a summary of broken systems and how it's darn near impossible to get them fixed.  It's important to keep these in mind as we try to automate more and more of our lives.  Because of issues like this, I dread the day of widespread AI adoption because it means WAY more inconvenience for customers and patients.

  • 3/19/25 - It's 2025, and Gmail still puts a ton of legitimate email from technical mailing lists and from the customer service responses of various vendors in my spam box, while allowing spam and phishing messages in my inbox.  Unfortunately there is no way to disable the spam filter.  This has been going on for many years.
  • 3/19/25 - I received an email from customer support of a prominent organization (AAA) where the "from" address was my email address.  In other words the from and to addresses were the same and there was no way to respond to them to tell them the address was wrong.  My mail app even showed as if the message were from me!  When I used the form to get in touch with them, the rep at the other end had no idea what I was talking about.
  • 3/19/25 - I received an email from a merchant (a small olive oil vendor) with "do not reply" (and thus no way to respond to the message) notifying me that a certain product which I had ordered a couple of weeks ago had just shipped.  The product was already delivered several days ago, but there was no easy way to contact the merchant.  They do not even list an email address on their website.  I used the contact form, and interestingly when I got a response, it ended up in my spam folder on Gmail!
  • 3/19/25 - I received a text notification from Doordash that my order was dropped off approximately 5 hours after it had been dropped off.
  • 3/19/25 - My brokerage has been sending me 2 expiration notices for trades that didn't go through during the trading day.  This has been going on for many months and happened today as well.  The first one arrives at the close of trading at around 1 pm pacific time.  The second one arrives at the end of the business day at 5 pm pacific time.  When I contacted the brokerage about this, they suggested that I change the email address that I use for these notifications!
  • 4/2/25 - I received an email from AT&T with a link to review my account.  I click the link and there's a flash of the screen but no web page opens, as if a web page opened and then closed immediately.
  • 5/4/2025 - I noticed a product I bought from Nordstrom previously got merged with a cheaper product.  When I pointed this out to customer service, they insisted the pricing and description was correct.  Basically you had the cheaper product being sold at the price of the more expensive (the EVA product whose normal price is $54.95 was being sold at the price of a leather product at $200).  No amount of going back and forth with their customer service could fix this.
  • 5/6/2025 - I searched for sandals on the Nordstrom site and filtered by Men & Sandals.  Yet I had a bunch of boots and boat shoes show up in the search results.  Next, I order something and ask for it to be shipped to store.  A day later I get a text message from DHL asking me to authorize delivery (to the store) without signature!  It is also impossible to send an email to Nordstrom customer service.

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Numerology for names

Here are the numbers for each letter from Cheiro's Book of Numbers.  If the name adds to a single digit, those are covered in separate chapters starting at page 38.  If the name adds to double digits, those are covered starting on page 80.  Many folks that utilize numerology will change the spelling of their name to one that adds up to a more fortunate number.  You can use this page to run the computation for your name.

1 - A, I, J, Q, Y

2 - B, K, R

3 - C, G, L, S

4 - D, M, T

5 - E, H, N, X

6 - U, V, W

7 - O, Z

8 - F, P

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Car design trends that I wish would go away

 Here are some car design trends that have seem to have taken over the auto industry that I wish would go away.  They help with neither usability nor aesthetics.

  • Use of piano black in the interior.  These show fingerprints and dust very prominently and are also prone to being scratched and showing those scratches.  Use matte black or wood instead.
  • Use of shiny chrome in the interior.  This reflects light and in some situations can be downright uncomfortable for the driver.  Use brushed aluminum instead.
  • Ever larger wheels.  16" or 17" wheels on a sedan of any size should be good enough.  On an SUV 18" or 19" should be the most needed.  Larger wheels have tires with smaller sidewalls and make the ride uncomfortable especially given the pothole-ridden roads we have nowadays.  Bigger wheels and tires weigh more (lower mpg and slower acceleration), and they cost more to replace.  It's insane that we now have cars with 18" or 19" wheels and SUVs with 20" to 22" wheels. 
  • Excessive use of screens and touchscreens.  It's OK to have one small one for navigation and infotainment, but why put things like climate control in there?  Why have a complicated digital dash controlled by complicated steering wheel controls when a simple one will get the job done?  Would really appreciate physical controls for the climate control.  Most of these screens have flicker, sometimes excessive flicker.  There is now a trend of having screens on the passenger side (seen in the newer cars from MB, BMW, and Audi).
  • Uncomfortable seats with poor padding.  Many newer cars seem to have extra firm seats with worse seat comfort than the corresponding previous generation.  It almost mandates using a separate seat cushion to get adequate comfort during long drives.
  • Use of run flat tires.  These are noisier to begin with and get even noisier and harder as they age.  This makes them very uncomfortable especially on bad roads.  They are also heavier so getting rid of the spare doesn't save much weight, if any, once you have all the extra weight of run flat tires. Finally, they are more expensive to replace and it greatly reduces the number of choices available.  I really wish they'd stick with regular tires and a compact or full size spare.
  • White LED headlights.  The color temperature of most headlights nowadays is too high and will tend to cause fatigue and lead to difficulty falling asleep after one has been driving at night.  A warmer color temperature that matches regular halogen headlights would be better.
  • Plastic trim around wheel wells. For some reason car makers decided to stop painting these and expose black plastic which fades and looks horrible over time.
  • Crazy wheel designs.  What was wrong with the single color 5-spoke, 7-spoke, and multi-spoke wheels of the from the 90's to the early 10's?  Now we have the busiest wheel designs with all kinds of jagged and incoherent geometric patterns, often in black/dark grey/silver combinations.
  • Dropping the logo on the rear and spelling out the brand.  I think the logo looks cleaner.

Monday, May 27, 2024

Dealing with ID theft

Things to do to minimize any damage if your identity is stolen.
  • Freeze credit bureaus.
    • Equifax
    • Experian
    • TransUnion
    • Innovis 
    • Lexis Nexis (https://consumer.risk.lexisnexis.com/freeze)
    • Chex Systems (for bank account opening)
    • Early Warning System
    • Clarity Services
    • NCTUE (for utilities)
  • SSA
    • mySSA account to secure SSN with SSA (needs ID.me or Login.gov ID)
  • Account with local state unemployment office
  • Report stolen SSN to IRS and get PIN (needs ID.me)
  • File a report with identitytheft.gov
  • File a report with local police department
Here is a thread on reddit summarizing all the actions that need to be taken.

Friday, October 8, 2021

Peak technology

I am of the opinion that we have reached the peak of technology that benefits people at large.  From here on out almost all technological developments will be in the area of mass surveillance--monitoring driving, consumption habits, health, etc.  I'm not sure how this information will be misused, but misused it will be.

Technology is continuing to be abused in many ways.  AI is imperfect and will adversely impact the lives of those that are incorrectly classified as false positives in whatever the AI program is looking for.  This is likely to cause a lot of pain for those people.

Friday, June 11, 2021

PWM, temporal dithering and headaches with newer Apple displays

iPhones

Most new smartphones use a display technology called OLED.  These displays use a technology called PWM (pulse width modulation) for dimming the display.  This creates a flicker, which while not perceptible to the eye, can cause all kinds of symptoms -- headaches, nausea, etc.  Every time I have tried the newer iPhones with OLED displays in the store, I find I immediately feel eyestrain.  This has kept me from buying one of them and I have stuck to an iPhone with the older display technology called LCD.

If you have had issues with newer phones, you might be sensitive as well.  This article sums up the problem nicely.

PWM may not be the whole issue.  There's also refresh rates (which impacts the smoothness of scrolling), addressed to some extent by ProMotion in some newer iPhones, and also temporal dithering.  More on temporal dithering below.

MacBooks

With newer MacBooks, a small, but not insignificant, number of users, including myself, have experienced really bad headaches when using them.  A few things that I did to try and mitigate the problem included turning off true tone, turning off auto brightness, and turning off dimming when running on battery.  None of these helped.

Digging deeper, I discovered that there's a feature called temporal dithering that Apple implements in order to render a larger number of colors than the display is natively capable of.  Unfortunately there is no way to turn this off using native controls in macOS.

In some of the forums, it was suggested that SwitchResX is an app that can be used to disable temporal dithering by setting the display to render millions of colors rather than billions of colors which is the default.

Another useful tool for checking various aspects of displays such as pixel inversion is the Lagom LCD monitor test pages.  Testing side by side with a Dell XPS, the M1 MacBook Air showed noticeably more flicker.

Finally, Iris is another tool attempts to get around PWM with laptops by using an app to control brightness and filtering colors in a way that makes the display experience easy on the eyes.

References

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Planning for retirement

 Placeholder for useful links for retirement planning.

Monday, April 13, 2020

Some thoughts on ZIRP/NIRP

ZIRP stands for zero interest rate policy.  NIRP stands for negative interest rate policy.  As governments and corporations are awash in debt, ZIRP and NIRP appear to have been embraced whole-heartedly by central banks.

As the federal reserve started to lower its benchmark interest rate back towards zero (it is zero as of this writing), I started to think about what this means for fixed-income investments if they decide to go from ZIRP to NIRP.

In some of the online forum discussions, folks said a drop of 0.5% in interest, e.g. from +0.25% to -0.25% is the same as, e.g., a drop from +0.5% to 0%.  To show that this is not really accurate, I presented the following example.

Lets say to have $x to invest at an interest rate of r% for a length of time t.  Then as t goes to infinity:
  • if r > 0, then the balance, x goes to infinity.
  • if r = 0, then the balance stays exactly the same at x.
  • if r < 0, then the balance x goes to 0.
In other words, with a negative interest rate, one's balance starts reducing over time and eventually goes to zero.  I hope we (the US) don't get to NIRP, but with the economy the way it is, there's no telling.  Japan and the EU have been in NIRP for a while now.  Large corporations have benefited from this.  LVMH for example had an offering of negative yielding bonds to finance its purchase of Tiffany & Co.--a case of investors actually paying LVMH to borrow their money!

The downsides of ZIRP and NIRP

Some of the down sides of ZIRP and NIRP are:
  1. It penalizes savers and those that depend on interest for fixed income.
  2. It causes people with money to speculate on assets such as stocks and real-estate. 
  3. It causes real-estate prices to rise so houses are out of reach of the middle class without taking on excessive debt and becoming house poor.  This also means that any extended dip in house prices and employment can stress banks as their loans go bad.  This is what happened during the housing crisis.
  4. It forces pension funds to speculate in stocks in order to meet their obligations.  This means that any extended dip in stocks will cause a number of these pension funds to become insolvent, putting their ability to pay out pensions at a risk.
  5. It leads to rampant financial engineering by companies where they take on long term debt to buy back their own stock enriching their stockholders and executives.
  6. It exacerbates wealth inequality in society since people that are wealthy to begin with (e.g. private equity, hedge funds, large businesses) have access to cheap money that retail investors and small businesses do not.
#3 and #4 pretty much mean that once ZIRP/NIRP are used by the central bank, the entire economy becomes dependent on frequent and larger interventions by the central banks.  At some point in time (I think we are already there now) the central banks own the entire market and there is no more real price discovery.

Proponents of ZIRP/NIRP argue that the pros outweigh the cons.

How to invest in a ZIRP/NIRP environment?

This is hard question to answer and I'm not really qualified to do it, but here are some of my thoughts.

Simple investment in savings and CDs are not likely to yield much.  I'm not a big fan of "yield chasing" where you open an account with an online bank only to have them reduce their rates a few months later.  Typical yields in a ZIRP environments are close to zero, lower than 0.1%.  That amounts to an annual return of less than $1000 on each $100,000 invested.  And then there's typically taxes that need to be paid even on those measly returns!

I don't like the idea of being forced to invest in stocks especially since there's an ethical dilemma where I don't want to support the kinds of financial activity that is destroying people's lives.  I know stocks will go up (don't fight the fed, as they say), but still.

Gold is an option, but one has to be careful of the pitfalls of investing in various types of gold and the possibility of price manipulation.

Treasury products such as I Bonds and EE Bonds are a possibility but you have to create and manage an account with treasurydirect.gov and some folks have reported less than desirable experiences when needing any kind of customer support.  The products also aren't as liquid--minimum holding period, interest penalty if cashed within a certain time period, etc., and there are annual limits on the amount that an individual can buy each calendar year -- $10K of each as of this writing.

If I figure something out, I will update this post.

In the meantime, this is what the chair of federal reserve thinks savers should do.  It just amazes me that the chair of the federal reserve and many politicians equate a 401(k) with risk assets.  It doesn't have to be that way.  Most 401(k)'s offer a stable value fund or money market fund as an investment option.  Those 401(k) savers are not benefitting from the federal reserve's policies.

Update 06/27/2020

The fed made a statement saying they will keep rates near zero until at least 2022.

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Water hardness

I was trying to find out whether I would benefit from using a water softener with my dishwasher.

First, I contacted my local water supply and they pointed me to this report:
https://www.roseville.ca.us/UserFiles/Servers/Server_7964838/File/Government/Departments/Environmental%20Utilities/At%20your%20service/Water%20supply/Water%20quality%20reports/EU_WaterQualityReport_2018_DigitalVersion.pdf
The report has a line that says the water hardness is 24 ppm if coming from the lake or 90-250 ppm if coming from groundwater. Based on my ZIP code, I was also told that my area is serviced entirely from the lake.

However, the appliances measure water hardness in degrees of hardness.

So I found this calculator:
https://www.lenntech.com/calculators/hardness/hardness.htm
I plug in 24 ppm and get 1.35 German degrees of hardness.

Over to the dishwasher manual and I see a line:
"Water supplies with a hardness level higher than 4 gr/gal (4 °d) needs to be softened."
Going by that it looks like I would not benefit from having or using a water softener.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

2019 Acura RDX Tech SH-AWD review

Here's a brief review of the 2019 Acura RDX with the Technology Package and SH-AWD.  I was mostly drawn to the car for its seat comfort.  The Technology Package is one level above the base model.  I chose it mainly because I wanted parking sensors and leather seats.  Otherwise, the base model would have been adequate.

Features I like:
  • Seat comfort.
  • Headlight intensity -- illuminates the road very well.
  • Quality of materials.
  • Interior and exterior design.
  • NSX inspired shifter/center console.
  • Steering, handling, power.
  • Ride comfort.
  • Cap-less fuel filler.
  • Option to automatically reset trip computer on refuel.
Features that are OK but that could be improved:
  • The padding in the seat pan could be better so that it removes pressure from the low back.  Look at Volvo and Tesla, for example.
  • Gauges could be made less busy.  No need for km/hr and mph at the same time in a digital speedometer.
  • When switching between displays in the center, it would be better if they didn't shrink, then switch back to normal size after a delay.  And re-do the information to be less wordy.
  • Better ambient lighting.  Map lights feel underpowered.
  • Change to a touchscreen infotainment.  Existing setup is prone to hunting unless you look at the screen and at the touch pad, which means we're not paying attention to the road.
  • Better implementation of rear camera.  Currently unusable in rain, leave camera on for a few seconds when switching from R to D, more accurate guidelines (lines don't match up with the where the car's wheels are).  (Advance trim would help with rain since it has a camera washer.)
  • Move the BSI (blind spot indication) from the A pillars to the mirrors.
  • Road departure warning is overly sensitive, especially on internal roads.
  • Lane keep assist doesn't work very well.  It keeps asking for the driver to take control.
  • Lane departure warning is too sensitive and keeps buzzing even when within the lane.  I was forced to disable it.
  • Quality control issues.  Several rattles and issues with the audio system.
  • Interior could be quieter.  I registered 90+ dB on the highway using the Decibel X app on my iPhone.   The quietest cars register somewhere in the mid 60's.  (Advance trim would help since it has acoustic side glass.)
  • MPG. Fortunately gas prices are muted and will likely remain that way as more cars switch to hybrid/electric drivetrains.
  • No way to turn the headlights off when the car is moving in the evening.
  • The chrome pieces on the steering wheel, but especially on the center stack, can sometimes, depending on how the sun is hitting it, reflect blinding light directly into the driver's eyes.  Should be replaced with something non-reflective.
  • Rear visibility, especially the sides is very poor.
  • The parking sensors don't extend to the sides of the bumpers and only warn about objects directly in front of or behind the car.
  • Software updates are over the air, but map updates must be done via USB and the upgrade process is kludgy and prone to failure, causing a lot of frustration.  I discovered that the system doesn't like the USB drive to be larger than 64GB, and that is must not be a Sandisk!
  • OEM tires are noisy.
Tip: When you're on a call, the multi-information and navigation displays are covered by a message saying "call in progress".  To be able to view the displays, one has to hit the "back" button on the steering wheel.  Without that, it is not possible to view the trip computer or miles remaining, nor is it possible to view the map or access the navigation.

Problems I have had with the car
  • Crackling speakers: Intermittent problem that I noticed since the car was new.  Not fixed.
  • Squeaky tailgate: Happened around 5000 miles.  Fixed under warranty.
  • Whistling when engine starts or shuts: Happened around 7000 miles.  Fixed under warranty TSB.
  • Infotainment will prompt for update even though no update is available.  Fixed in D1.2.1.
  • Rubber lining near the tailgate lock has a gap.  Fixed under warranty by adjusting the lining.
  • Ticking sound when starting the engine.  Intermittent problem.  Fixed under warranty by adjusting the PCM bracket.
  • Numerous rattles all over the interior started to appear after about a year.  Not fixed.
  • When starting on a trip from home the infotainment system booted up and threw an error "Unfortunately, AcuraLauncher has stopped".  Did not happen again on the return trip.  Not fixed.
  • Received recall notice from Acura to replace the fuel pump motor.
  • Clock doesn't automatically adjust for daylight savings even though all clock settings are auto (detect time zone, set time, etc.).  Fixed by changing to manual mode for settings and, after some time, switching back to auto.  (Update: Continuing to occasionally see problems with the clock being off by an hour.)
  • Intermittently started to get a warning for "Drive mode change unavailable" at the bottom of the infotainment display.  Not fixed.
  • Parking sensors are being triggered in rain without any reason.  See video.  Not yet fixed.
  • Transmission got stuck in gear one day.  It wouldn't change gears and I had high revs and unable to gain speed.  Turning off the car reset the problem and when I took it to the dealer they were unable to reproduce it or find any error codes.  Not fixed.
  • Had a leaking rear shock that made a creaking sound when going over bumps.  This was at around 45K miles.  It was replaced under the extended warranty that I had purchased.
2023 RDX

In March 2023, I decided to trade the 2019 in and get the exact same car except the 2023.  There were several improvements I noticed which I will write about later.

So far, I have had the following problems with the 2023:
  • Squeaky brakes when backing up.  Not fixed.
  • A failed transmission when the car had a few thousand miles.  The symptom was whistling noise at highway speeds.  Replaced under warranty.  
  • AIS stopped engaging at around 30K miles.  Battery was replaced under warranty.  However, AIS still would not engage.  Not fixed.
  • At around 33K miles, time in the infotainment would always reset to 4:00 at startup and start counting from there.  Location in GPS always showed car parked at home.  Infotainment unit was replaced.  As a side benefit I got full wide-screen Apple CarPlay immediately following the replacement.
  • Oil leak at 41k fixed under warranty.
  • At 44K miles, same infotainment failure that happened at 33L miles.  Infotainment unit replaced again.  But pairing isn't working right after the replacement.
  • At 44K miles, the air vent for the driver footwell would only blow cold air regardless of HVAC temp setting.  Took it in and they found that a motor had failed.
Additional Info

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Being positive vs peaceful to manifest good health

I often hear well-meaning friends and relatives say "be positive", which doesn't resonate with me because I don't believe in faking it.  I recently came across this video where Deepak Chopra says:

@ 6:15
It's not that you have think positively all the time.  You have to get in touch with your emotions, you have to share them with somebody that you love, you have release them, you have to express them, because if you repress emotions that creates its own biology too.
@ 8:30
A peaceful mind is more important than a positive mind.  Because a positive mind can be working really hard at it, can be stressful to be positive all the time.  But when you're at peace, that's a wholly different thing because all the biochemistry of anxiety disappears.

Monday, December 10, 2018

BMW E46 -- The last of the ultimate driving machines

I first was introduced to the BMW brand on a trip to Germany in the summer of 1997 where I had the chance to drive an E36 316i part of the way from Munich to Berlin and back.  It had a puny 1.6 liter 4 cylinder rated at 101 hp.  It had cloth seats and manual rear windows and climate control.  The car felt great around town and handled superbly at high speeds on the autobahn.

By the end of that year, I was looking at replacing my then aging 1988 Nissan Sentra and looked getting a an E36 318ti which was the lowest spec BMW available in the US at the time.  I decided it would be too expensive for me, so I passed on it and I decided to get a 1998 Honda Civic EX instead.  The Civic was a fun car by itself but it was no BMW.

Five years later, at the end of 2002, after the Civic was damaged in an accident and declared a total loss, I decided to get a 2003 E46 325i.  This was the lowest spec BMW available in the US at the time.  I placed an order for the car in October 2002.  I ordered the base car with only a moonroof as an added option--I didn't care about luxury, but I knew it would feel a lot better than the Civic even in its base trim.  The car arrived in December 2002.  I drove that car for almost 11 years putting more than 211000 miles on it.  It was a simple car.  It was the most fun car I have owned.  I loved the design inside and out.  It was ergonomically and aesthetically perfect.  I knew somebody had sweated every little detail that brought this car together.

I don't track cars and I'm not motivated by speed or 0-60 times.  Nor am I a technophile so I don't care about cameras, heads up displays, autonomous driving capabilities, and other such gizmos.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say that I am a technophobe.  I prefer less technology because it means fewer things that can go wrong.   What did I like about the E46?  Let's start with the engine--it was a 2.5 liter inline 6 naturally aspirated engine that was silky smooth.  It made me smile every time I turned the ignition and heard it come to life.  While driving, the car emitted a wonderful exhaust note and the naturally aspirated engine offered linear acceleration.  The steering allowed the driver to feel the pavement as the car was being driven.  The suspension kept the car planted with a feeling like it was on rails while at the same time cushioning bumps.  Between the engine note, steering feel, and suspension tuning, this car felt special even crawling around at 10 mph in a parking lot.  On the highway it offered a planted feel no matter the speed.  It made me feel confident almost begging me to push the car harder.  Likewise when driving on winding roads--I could take curves much faster than I thought I could.  In fact, the sales guy had warned me at the time of taking delivery "Be careful.  If you don't watch the speedometer, you will get tickets.  It is very easy to speed in this car."  He was right.

And there were other aspects of the car like the full size spare in an era where almost all manufacturers were offering a compact spare.

E90 -- Polarizing styling but still drives like the ultimate driver

The E46 was succeeded by the E90.  By then BMWs had been subject to polarizing styling by Chris Bangle.  Both the exterior and the interior were impacted.  The interior lost its ergonomics with the center console no longer tilted towards the driver.  The cupholders were flimsy pop-outs.  The gauge cluster lost its coolant temperature gauge.

But all of these design flaws were forgotten once you got behind the wheel.  The sublime inline six, the steering feel, and the suspension were all intact with this generation.  The only thing that BMW meddled with from a driving dynamics standpoint was the introduction of run-flat tires.  This was premature on BMW's part.  While the goal was noble -- to have tires you could drive on even with zero tire pressure to get to safety in times of a flat -- the technology wasn't ready.  The first and even second generation of run-flats were too harsh and too noisy.  (BMW's best driving cars, like the M3, continued to offer regular, go flat tires.)  This made the uninformed customer incorrectly think that BMW's suspension was too harsh.  Word in BMW forums was "swap out the run flats, and you have a car that drives like a BMW should."

Also in terms of specs, when the E90 was introduced, it was a better car in every way than the E46 that it replaced, with the exception of size and weight.  For example, BMW went from offering a 10-speaker audio system that was standard in the E46 to a 12-speaker system that was standard in the E90.

E90 de-contenting

Starting around 2009, BMW started de-contenting their E90s.  A number of features were silently removed.  Many enthusiasts who thought they were getting a similar car to their older E90 were disappointed to find many missing features.  In some cases were able to get BMW to buy the car back because it fell so far short of their expectation.  A few examples of the de-contenting -- The stereo system went from 12 speakers to 6.  The flashlight in the glove box was gone.  The storage nets behind the front seats was removed.  The pad under the hood was removed.  While BMW had, in the past, provided extremely detailed specs for every aspect of the car, they no longer provided that information.  In fact, it even became hard to get an answer for "how many speakers does the car have" even from the dealer!

This is perhaps the biggest reason I decided to forego the E90 and just kept maintaining my E46 even though it was very expensive to do so as the miles kept climbing beyond 150,000.

F30 -- The ultimate marketing machine

The F30 had a rushed introduction.  Instead of the normal 7 year cycle, the E90 had a shorter, 6 year run, with the F30 being introduced a year early as a MY2012 car in early 2012.  The car was the polar opposite of the E90.  The design was gorgeous inside and out but it had none of the driving attributes of a BMW.  The engine was a turbo 4 with an uninspiring exhaust note.  The engine was responsive, but being a turbo it lost its linear power delivery and offered more of a slingshot feel.  The steering was an electric power steering that was more numb than even a pedestrian Honda.  The suspension was either too floaty (giving the driver a feeling of bouncing at highway speeds) or too hard (sending shocks up the spine at even the mildest of imperfections) and had completely lost its planted, "riding on rails" feeling.  The run-flats carried over from the E90, but they were improved 2nd generation run-flats and rode a little less harsh.  In terms of driving dynamics, the only thing that remained from BMW DNA was the rear wheel drive and near 50:50 balance.  The car could be packed to the gills with technology and BMW would charge an arm and a leg for it.  Their implementation of technology is good, but nothing special compared to that offered by other luxury marques.

BMW had a whole bunch of ads touting it to be the ultimate driving machine.  I think of it as the ultimate marketing machine.  I fell for it.  I owned 2 of them.  First a no line which cause me severe buyers remorse but which BMW bought back because of recurring problems.  Then an M-sport which I hoped would provide an improved driving experience, which it did compared to the no line car, but was still no match for the E46 and E90 in terms of steering and suspension.

I finally realized BMW had changed from building a car that excites to building a car purely for profit while capitalizing on their brand.   I am no longer a BMW owner and probably never will be.  I find their recent styling borders on gaudy, flashy, and gimmicky.  There are many better choices for the enthusiast now, e.g. the Alfa Romeo Giulia or the Jaguar XE.  In a recent comparo by Motortrend magazine, the F30 placed 7th out of 8 cars tested.  This from a car that simply could not be beat year after year no matter how hard the competition tried.

Their most recent car designs border on gaudy.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

On cars with autopilot

I'm writing this post in the context of the recent Tesla Model X crash.  But there have been other failures of the autopilot here, here, and here.

Cars with autopilot normally require the driver to be able to take over when the car malfunctions or is unable to function, whether or not the car is able to alert the driver.  This is a system that is designed backwards.

Let me explain what I mean by starting with driver-assist technologies such as lane departure warning and pedestrian detection, where the driver does most of the work, but is assisted by the car.

Machine watching human ==> Great idea

Having a machine watch over a human and assist when needed is great idea.  Why?  A machine never tires of doing the same thing (monitoring conditions and making sure the human driver is doing the right thing).  Examples of these are technologies such as lane departure warning, pedestrian detection, alertness detection.  Should these fail, the human is still responsible, because the human was supposed to be alert and watching for these problems anyway.  The computer may help step in and save the day should the human make an error.

Now let's look at the flip side where we have autopilot.  Here most of the work is done by the car with the human expected to take over when things go wrong.

Human watching machine ==> Bad idea

Have a human waiting to take over when machine makes a mistake is a bad idea.  Why?  Humans have a really short attention span.  Unless we are totally involved in a certain task, our minds tend to wander off into the boonies and often times even audio or visual alerts may take a while to get our attention.  That's because we learn to tune out external stimuli when we are engrossed in something.  This is why autopilot systems should never be sold unless the car is capable of controlling itself in all situations including the event of total system failure without any input from the user.  Whoever designed this system expecting the human to be able to take over in any reasonable amount of time doesn't understand how the human mind works.

Autopilot in airplanes

Let's talk about autopilot in airplanes which has been around for years.  There are many cases where airline pilots fall asleep when the plane is on autopilot.
More than half of pilots have fallen asleep while in charge of a plane, a survey by a pilots' union suggests. 
Of the 56% who admitted sleeping, 29% told Balpa that they had woken up to find the other pilot asleep as well.
Fortunately, there have not been any fatalities due to that.  I should note that, with airline pilots, these folks receive training and are paid to stay alert watching the machine and they are unable to do so.

Back to cars

How many users actually go through a training for using the autopilot systems in cars that gives them experience with the various ways in which the system can fail and the consequences of those failures?

Just because we say "the driver should be fully engaged even when autopilot is in use" doesn't mean the driver will actually be able to do so.  Further, as mentioned in this article, there are situations where the car would fail to alert the driver altogether which means a driver has to be 100% engaged during autopilot use, and yet that is not realistic given how the human mind works.

So with Tesla putting full responsibility on the driver, Tesla is marketing a car with an autopilot feature but in reality they are having the driver pay Tesla to be a beta tester of their autonomous driving technology.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

My favorite camera of all time -- the Yashica T4 Super

I'm not a big photography buff, having attended only a couple of classes on photography.  I also do not have the patience to lug around DSLR-style equipment.  I have always owned compact cameras that are lightweight, easily portable, and offer only a little, if any, manual control.  But don't get me wrong--I used to really enjoy taking pictures with my main focus being composing the shot.

At the recommendation of a colleague at work, I bought a Yashica T4 Super, for, IIRC $135 back in 2002.  I gave the camera away a few years ago because the battery door broke and it was going to cost me $75 to get it fixed, and also I thought film was going out of fashion.  Big mistake because of all the junk that I have gotten rid of over the years, I really really miss my T4 Super.

Some of the things I really enjoyed about it were:
  • Superb aesthetic design.
  • A Carl Zeiss 35 mm f/3.5 lens that took very sharp photos with amazing color accuracy.
  • Lightweight at ~7 oz (200 gm) and compact while still very easy to hold.
  • Ability to imprint date on photos in a variety of formats.
  • An absolutely awesome top-level viewfinder which allowed taking photos from waist level.
  • Infinity focus/landscape mode.
  • Decent battery life.
  • Weatherproof.
  • Red eye reduction that worked very reliably.
There was a slight learning curve because the shutter release button was ultra sensitive (i.e. the shutter would release while you were trying to get it to focus), but once I learned how to operate it the results were awesome.

I have never had another camera that I liked so much.  The Yashica T4 embodied all of things that I cared about and nothing more.  It showed that the designers cared about and put a lot of thought into what they were doing.

I have owned several point-and-shoot digital cameras but they have all had one issue or another -- too big, too heavy, pictures not as good, view finder/LCD display not as good, shutter lag, etc.  Not to mention every single one of them was way more expensive than the T4 Super.

At this point, my smartphone is my only camera.  I have lost my passion for taking photos altogether and mostly only take pictures that are required for documentation (e.g. reporting car damage to insurance) rather than taking pictures for fun.

I guess I'm getting old, because I tend to use the phrase "they don't build them like they used to" a little too frequently.  The current state of the economy means companies have lost their passion to build great products and instead focus on financial engineering and other interesting ways of making money such as quality (mis)management.

Cameras I have owned

Listed in order of purchase.
  • Canon Owl (36 mm film)
  • Canon ELPH (APS film)
  • Kodak DC240i (1.3 MP digital)
  • Yashica T4 Super (36 mm film)
  • Sony Cyber-shot DSC-W1 (5 MP digital)
  • Leica DLUX 4 (10 MP digital)
I don't currently own a camera, other than what is available in my smartphone.

Saturday, February 17, 2018

A fine quote

Many years ago, I was having difficulty with my life situation and I came across someone that offered to help.  They sent me the following quote:
The warrior code says:
I have no friends; those who need me are my friends
I have no enemies; my lack of awareness is my enemy
This was the same person that gave me the first nudge in the direction of meditation.  

Thursday, November 2, 2017

On the American economy

This article by Joseph Stiglitz discusses the problems facing the American economy.  It is well worth a read.  The way the game is setup and is being played, it leads to tremendous amounts of wealth and power concentrated in the hands of a few and the trend is getting worse with time.  While the net worth of the richest folks is reaching new heights, so is the homeless population in many cities.

As has been said, power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  A number of the symptoms that we see like astronomically rising prices of medical care and education are due to the abuse of such concentrated power.

A lot of the imbalances in the stocks and real-estate are due to monetary policy.  Instead of focusing on building good products, corporations are focused on making a quick buck and using cheap access to money to get bigger via various financial engineering schemes and drive their competitors out of business using pricing.  I have noticed this to be true in all areas of the economy -- automobiles, appliances, apparel, hospitality -- you name it.  It's the reason why an ex-stalwart like Kodak stops innovating in photography and instead floats a cryptocurrency of all things.

Here are some interesting charts from the WSJ since the financial crisis of 2008.

A few interesting stories:

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Equifax data breach

Just read about this hack -- 143 million Americans just had their personal financial information stolen from Equifax.

Aside from a damage control message, they have offered to sign everyone up for free for their credit monitoring service called TrustedID.  What they don't tell us upfront, in a typical sneaky pretending-to-care-but-really-don't fashion, is that they are offering it only for one year.  This means after the first year we are on our own.  In fact, it's a great sales strategy, because they would expect people to continue to enroll in this service after the first free year, paying out of pocket and helping increase their revenues.

Per the terms of service, if one does accept the free offer, one would waive one's right to participate in any class action lawsuits against them.  Not that those are worth anything for the consumer.

What they should have offered

At the very least, Equifax should instead have offered everyone a choice of free service from their own and competitors' offerings since, at this point, why would anyone want to trust Equifax to do credit monitoring on their behalf?  And it should have been offered for life since the data can be misused pretty much forever.  They are already making money by selling consumer information to banks and other financial institutions.

Ethics

Three of their company executives dumped a bunch of stock before the data breach was revealed to the public.

In addition, their security head was a music major!

Was your data compromised?

The official link provided by Equifax to check if your data was impacted is here.  Unfortunately, there is no way to tell if the above link is even reporting accurate results.

Freezing credit files

Many folks recommend calling the credit bureaus and freezing your credit files.  Freezing must be done at all of the agencies.  So far, I'm aware of the following:
Most folks are only aware of the big 3 in this space -- Equifax, Experian, Transunion -- but freezing only those would provide only partial protection.

Credit is not the only problem

As noted in this article:
What’s more likely is that stolen information will be used to take over existing accounts, such as banking, brokerage, phone service, and retirement accounts.
And even more as described in this article:
If the stolen information from Equifax gets into the wrong hands, experts say data thieves can open bank accounts, lines of credit, new credit cards and even drivers' licenses in your name. They can saddle you with speeding tickets, steal your tax refund, swipe your Social Security check and prevent you from getting prescription drugs.
What else can be done?

Sign up for a credit monitoring service.  Experian is offering this for free.

Buy identity theft insurance, preferably from a regular insurance company--the same one that sells your renters or homeowners policy.  Some policies will cover financial losses (it is moot as to whether this is needed because assets are typically restored once it is established that fraud was involved) and pay for someone to fix the issue when it happens.

Simplify your financial life and check all of your accounts often -- bank accounts, credit cards, brokerage accounts. That way, if an account is hacked, one may be able to detect the issue sooner rather than later.

Equifax's free offering

Personally, I will not be signing up for any services offered by Equifax.  Based on the way they have handled the data breach, I don't think they can be trusted.  As this article notes:
Equifax already waited six weeks to tell the world about the hack -- that gave hackers a six-week jump on all of us, Nunnikhoven noted.
The lack of urgency is a clear indication that the management at Equifax is completely clueless about the severity of the problem that they have created for the public.  The information that was stolen can be misused for years to come.

But, worse, they had 2 whole months to fix the vulnerability that was exploited in this attack and did nothing about it as noted in this article:
Equifax told USA TODAY late Wednesday that the criminals who potentially gained access to the personal data of up to 143 million Americans had exploited a website application vulnerability known as Apache Struts CVE-2017-5638.

The vulnerability was patched on 7 March 2017, the same day it was announced, the foundation said. Modifications were made on March 10, according to the National Vulnerability Database.

Equifax said that the unauthorized access began in mid-May. That's a period of two months in which the company could have, and should have, say experts, dealt with the problem.
The long term fix

Longer term, the US needs to come up with a better way for authentication than using social security numbers, as noted in this article:
The Republic of Estonia uses such a system to identify members of its e-Residency program, even with no physical presence. Each e-resident has a public numerical key that serves as a unique identifier, and a corresponding private key that is never revealed. During the authentication process, the private key is used to generate an irreversible digital signature. The signature is shared and verified by the public key without ever exposing the private key.
Problems are not limited to Equifax

I have had credit monitoring services from a different bureau, courtesy of my data being hacked from several financial and health care companies.  Whenever I have tried to access customer service at that bureau, I find it to be so incompetent that I wonder whether the company even deserves to be in business, let alone be in the business of managing the most sensitive data of all Americans.

Additional reading/resources

Saturday, September 2, 2017

The stock market and paper wealth

This post explains what I have learnt about the stock market and the creation and destruction of paper wealth.

Let's a company issues 1000 shares at $10 at its initial public offering.  This means $10,000 of new money enters the market from the sideline.  Thereafter people bid on those 1000 shares.  So let's say someone (Person A) wants to buy 10 of those shares and is willing to pay $12.  They would put in a bid for that price, and if a seller emerges (Person B), they exchange 12x10 = $120 dollars and the buyer of the stock (Person A) now becomes the owner of those 10 shares.  In this process, everyone holding a share of this company now thinks that their shares are also worth $12.  So the collective total of all 1000 shares of the company is now considered to be $12000, even though there was only one transaction of 10 shares at that price.  So if some other person (Person C) that was holding 100 shares of the stock that they bought at the IPO price of $10 (worth a total of $1000), they see their wealth has now increased by $200 because those 100 shares are now worth $1200 even though they didn't buy or sell anything themselves.  Paper wealth destruction happens in a similar fashion.  If everyone tried to sell at the same time and there were no buyers, the value of the stock would drop to nothing (this is what happens in the case of companies that declare bankruptcy).

So many news articles talk about money on the sidelines.  This is very misleading.  Every time someone sells a stock and takes money out of the market, there is someone else that is putting an equivalent amount of money into the market.  The only time money enters the market is during IPOs and secondary IPOs (issuance of additional stock).  The only time money leaves the market is when a company has its shares bought out for cash and discontinues trading.

New money enters the economy through other methods that I do not yet fully understand such as monetary policy, fractional reserve banking, and changes to the money supply.  These methods affect the amount of money that is available to chase assets such as stocks, bonds, and real-estate.

The number of publicly traded companies

The number of publicly traded companies has been steadily going down as reported by Fortune:
37% decline in the number of U.S.-listed companies since its 1997 high. With more companies opting for private fundraising over the hassle of public markets (looking at you, Uber), the number of public companies has fallen to 5,734, about on par with the early ’80s.
This may be a potential contributor to the current overvaluation of stocks because more and more money is chasing fewer stocks.